Hi everyone,

I'm copying Tanja's postings related to the task, so wehave them all here

"I will need your help for the risk analysis of the project. The risk analysis will be broken in risk assessment, risk characterization, risk communication, risk management and policy related to risk. I don't know much about farming in Africa, so I will appreciate your input. To build on Ken's comment - we need to know if the local community will use the goats(cows) for milk or meat, to sell, etc. Main risks may be floods/droughts, diseases proneness of the goats, lack of constant supply of forage, theft, volatility of price of milk/meat if for sale, availability of storage facilities for milk/meat,level of hygiene of the farmers, treatment of waste water,stability of political situation,availability of safe water,farm mechanization,land erosion,inconsistent management/involvement of the local community,level of agriculture education, availability of knowledge transfer,unsuccessful artificial insemination, etc. Generally if we can prevent the occurrence of a certain event it should not be considered a risk but I do not know enough about the local situation to feel comfortable to exclude any of the mentioned possible risks.
I don't feel that we need a formal SWOT analysis ( strengths and weaknesses- internal factors;opportunities and threats -external; what do you think?), but I would like to have a broader discussion on the perceived pros and cons for our project.

Best regards"

"One more question: there are five pictures of cows/cattle under "my village" tab ( photos 10.11.13.15 and 18). Who is the owner of these animals? Are they used in farming instead of mechanization? Are they used for milk/meat/sales?"

"Can you help me with some more information about the local resources for the risk assessment( or do you feel that this is too much information/ unnecessary details)?

1. Physical/Natural Resources:
-A map detailing the land topography, pasture, vegetative species, weeds and woody species and their sites, carrying capacities of each field, the location of structures like barns and fences, and all water resources that are available including ponds, streams, automatic waterers, and rural water lines ( hand drawn works just fine);
- Land use and fertility;
-An accurate description of wildlife species and populations (including loose neighborhood dogs) to determine potential predators or problems that can result from them;
- A historical record of rainfall and weather patterns for the farm or local area;

2. Human/Personnel Resources:
- All persons who will work on the project including the farmer, family, paid full or part-time employees, friends and neighbors;
- The names, assigned duties of each person, their skills and talents, their work schedules;

3. Equipment Resources ( if any):
- The size, age, condition of all equipment that is used by the farm ;
- Note if the equipment is owned, rented, or borrowed;
-Estimate the fair market value of each piece of equipment;

4. Financial Resources:
- Cash and savings accounts that are used by the community ( my understanding is -none) ;
- Current debts, include the lender, the amount owed, the interest rate, and the time remaining on the loan;
- Operating loans that are expected to be used year after year along with the expected amount to be borrowed, terms, and interest rates;

Questions based on Goat research in Langston University."

"Raul,

Thank you for your help. The document paints a very bleak picture of Walungu. Hopefully the situation is much better today ( the report is from 2005). Here are some patches from the babelfish translation:

...Multiple problems of production:insecurity created by the successive wars causing displacements of the farmers, plundering and destruction of harvests and the cultures by armed bands,lack of authority of governmental administration,physical weakening of the women due to rapes and sexual violences (1028 assaults in 4 months), poverty of the ground, diseases of the plants, problem of access to the ground, lack of inputs and agricultural credits, weather disturbances , mining, lack of infrastructure and markets, abandonment of agriculture to the women and the old men and the ignorance of the agricultural techniques by the farmers, constant malnutrition, lack of clean water and latrines,high mortality caused by waterborne diseases. The schooling of the children is not possible for the majority especially the girls because they are always victims of social discrimination. The income of the family is very low, which does not make it possible the population to suitably reach the primary care of health...

The situation was described as- anarchy, fear, insecurity and permanent tension.

If we are focusing on milk production the bad hygiene and the lack clean water will be major problems."

"SWOT
Stage One

Strength - need based eagerness to learn, commitment of the community.
Weakness- lack of training, lack of local milk producing goat breeds, no controlled temperature storage, demographics, water quality, hygiene.
Opportunity- training in raising milk producing goats, milk storage, milk preparation ( assumption- milk will need to be boiled in order to be stored - no commercial pasteurization facilities), build underground storing facility/utilize caves?
Threat-theft, miscommunication, lack of veterinary care, decreased interest, weather.

Stage two

Similar to stage one with the addition of reluctance of the farmers to work together in a group, lack of trust between members and underdeveloped infrastructure which will impede the timely delivery of fresh milk to local markets.

I am not sure about the feed availability in Walungu (brush, weeds, etc), water sources, forage, potential biggest expenses, labor,vaccinations- depending on the availability/unavailability they may be either pros or cons.

Some questions for Guillaume :
Is there any generational gap because of the war ( in the document the farmers were described as women and older man).
Is it subsistent farming? Any existing mechanization, knowledge transfer?
Are there any current debts that will endanger the project ( the lender may request the debt to be paid with goats).

Guillaume,

Can you draw a map of the area- marking the limits of the village, the farms, the area where the the goats will stay overnight ( if any) , the pastures, local forests, water sources, roads, land fertility-anything that you think that will help us to better picture the situation on the ground."

Hi Sonja,

Any news from the local community on this suggestion? What is the timeframe for the demonstration farm? Will the goats stay in the farm all the time or the people will take them to pastures during the day? Does anybody know if there are any absolutely necessary vaccinations for goats in DR of Congo? Who is assuming "ownership" of the demonstration farm? What kinds of crops were you talking about? Where will the community sell these crops and how will they learn about the fair market price?

Neighbors, I posted a table on the wiki. Please take a look at the suggested risks and rank them as low (L), medium (M), high (H) according to your understanding of the situation in Walungu (Low ranking- will not affect the project too much if it happens, high ranking- will affect the project very much).The second ranking will be on the possibility for this event to happen (1-most likely will not happen, 3- most likely will happen, 2 - in the middle). This will help me to weed out the risks that are not too relevant and create a comprehensive risk analysis. I hope the example makes sense ...Thanks a million!

Best,

Tanja

Tanja thank you very much for your contribution. I entered my answers, but I'll revise them once more.

I answered the questions about the community in "Help us define project plan" section.

Please let me know your available date and time for the chat as soon as you know about it.

Everyone, let's help Tanja with risk assessment.

Have a nice weekend.
Sonja

Wed,2 pm GMT works for me too

Hi there,

Thanks again for your patience yesterday.
I found a list with poisonous plants for goats. Guillaume, do you recognize any of the names as plants growing in your area? Here is a link to a database with pictures ( I assume the names will be different in Walungu). http://www.ansci.cornell.edu/plants/comlist.html

I think the poisonous plants can be a big risk for the project (until the people learn how to recognize them). Any of our French speaking neighbors- do you see any names that are very different in French and it will be easier for Guillaume to recognize the plants if the names are translated in French?

Castor Bean (seed, leaves)
Caladium (all parts)
Christmas Rose (root, leaves, sap)
Diffenbachia (all parts)
Philodendron (all parts)
Mistletoe (berries)
Rosary Pea (seeds)
Autumn Crocus (all, esp. bulb)
Bleeding Heart (leaves, roots)
Dutchman's Breeches (leaves, roots)
Foxglove (leaves)
Larkspur (all; seeds)
Lily of the Valley (all)
Monkshood (all)
Narcissus (all)
Daffodil (all)
Jonquil (all)
Potatoes (all green parts)
Rhubarb (leaves)
Tomato (leaves)
Apple (large amount of seeds)
Apricot (seed)
Almond (seed)
Avocado (leaves)
Azalea (all)
Black Locust (bark, twigs, seeds)
Boxwood (leaves, twigs)
Buckeye (leaves, nuts, flowers, sprouts)
Horsechestnut (leaves, nuts, flowers, sprouts)
Chinaberry (fruit, bark, berries)
Chokecherry (leaves, seeds, bark)
Wild Black Cherry (leaves, seeds, bark)
English Holly (berries)
Oaks (tannins in foliage and acorns can be toxic in large quantity)
Oleander (all including dried leaves)
Privet (leaves, berries)
Rhododendron (all parts)
Yew (all, esp. berries)
Daphne (all; fruit)
English Ivy (berries, leaves)
Golden Chain (seeds, pods, flowers)
Lantana (green berries, leaves)
Mountain Laurel (all even honey is toxic)
Yellow Jasmine (all, including nectar and roots)
Wisteria (pods, seeds)
Buttercup (all)
Cone Flower (all)
Black-eyed Susan (all)
Hemlock (seeds, stems, fleshy taproot often mistaken for wild parsnip or anise)
Jack-in-the-pulpit (all)
Jimson Weed (all)
Amanita Mushrooms (all)
Nightshade (all)
American Bittersweet (berries, roots, leaves)
Deadly Nightshade (all)
Pokeweed (roots, shoots, leaves)
White Snakeroot (all parts)
Morning Glory (seeds)
Tobacco (leaves)
Tulip (bulbs)
Iris (corms)

Best,

Tanja

Morning,

Based on the majority of answers in the wiki I did some research on the areas with higher ranking- goats' basic care- decease prevention ( including the posting for poisonous plants), food supply, education...Sonja will forward the information for the National University in Rwanda to Guillaume ( I realized I don't have your email to contact you directly and the messages on Nabuur are not always reliable and I did not want to post his email address online).Guillaume, I think it will be best if you contact Mr Kanani at the National University because you will be able to ask the questions that are most relevant to you. About the political situation- it is a concern but we don't have any control over it. We can try to come up with political unrest risk mitigation but I don't think it will make any sense...About the risk of theft - I am not sure how to address that...May be somebody could "work" as a security guard in the farm? Any suggestions?

Now back to training...The basic requirements for goats' care are clean ( not stale) water, good hay/pasture forage and for the growing kids and pregnant does- additional grain in the diet. Goats need additional source of minerals ( my grandpa used a big block of sea salt). Access to woodsy pastures was recommended. Guillaume- do you have any area around the village that qualifies as woodsy pastures? Will anybody be willing to take the goats to the pasture during the day?

Basic care- hoof trimming- every 6 to 8 weeks ( Guillaume -do you have anybody in the village who knows how to do it?). Deworming and lice control -4-6 times a year. Vaccinations for rabies and tetanus.

The bucks need to be separated from does to avoid unwanted pregnancy.

I tried to contact the author of the Goat manual again, waiting on info.

Have a good day:)

Tanja

Goodmorning neighbours,
I have mixed feelings about the chat of yesterday. As you know, it was my first experience with groupchatting and I have some questions:
1. Is there a transscript available of the whole chat, because I left early ? And are there any concrete results?
2. I think that this way of communicating is pretty tiresome and not practical. As I said yesterday, in my opinion there should be a well set agenda, known to everybody before the meeting. All points should be handled and dealt with, in the order of the agenda. The chairperson should direct the conversation. If one of the participants has a question or a remark, he/she can press the ? button on his keyboard and the chairperson can give him/her the floor. I mean, we are all professionals in our work and we all have regular meetings, in this way.
3. Finally, I suggested already to use Skype-conferencing
instead. (www.skype.com) It is also free of charge and talking goes faster than typing? How do you feel about this?
Nico

Nico,

I agree that we need an agenda. It is difficult to keep the flow of the conversation going in the right direction if everybody is asking different questions or if everybody is waiting for the right moment to ask a question ( and the moment may never come). I think Sonja is working on extracting the main points/results from the chat and she will post the script. If everybody has access to VOIP/ Skype I vote for using it :)

Best,

Tanja

Hi Nico and the others,

I would kindly ask you to leave this space for discussion about risk analysis.

I'm answering your question in "define the project plan" section

Best regards,
Sonja

Hi Everyone,

I think we all but Guillaume have skype. And Guillaume would be very important to have in the chat.

I recognise the chat was not exactly the most organised one but it was not bad for a first one with 5 people. We usually have an agenda and I am sure we can figure out how to establish a better one for the next one.

We could always try also skype to catch up on some points.

I feel we are going in the good direction and if we are finding a way to focus more in what the community is looking for.

Tanja,

In regards to Pasture, I would recommend not to take the goats to pasture but to use cut and carry techniques. We can have a lot more choice in what we can gice the goats and there are several elements that could be considered as waste that can be very nutritional for the goats.

In regards to security, we would need to make sure they are located in points where the people of the community have easy access and maybe central points in the village.

In regards to ownership. I am still unsure as to what to do once the demo farm is finished with the goats we would have there. I think one approach could be to make it on merit but in a situation like the one in Walungu, this might create issues but we have also seen they have to own the goats. I would like to hear what Guillaume thinks of this. Maybe we can form little groups within the main group so it would not be only a couple of families owning the initial goats. It is clear that until every family has a goat, a new kid will need to be given to a family with no goat and then savings will need to continue even after they all have goats so they can continue doing things together.

With the political unrest, I am happy with the situation described by Guillaume and it sounds it is ok.

I think we just need to decide on the breeding strategy, how we are going to contain the goats (maybe we can start with the artificial one for the demo farm and then start growing natural ones in the farms so they will be ready once there are more goats)

We also need to find training sources and define if we could crossbreed a dairy goat with a non-dairy goat. For example, a pygmy goat is smaller than a regular one so I am not sure if they will mate.

I am not sure if you guys got to discuss much more yesterday but I am looking forward to continue moving forward.

I look forward to reading Sonja's summary and to make a plan based on the decisions to go forward. As Ken says, we really need to find ways not to get stuck in so much analysis. Once we find something that we see could work and the community wants to try, we should go ahead and do it.

Anyway, these are my thoughts.

Have a nice day everyone,

Raul

Crossbreeding has no problem except if pygmy is one of the breeds, use pygmy males with other breed's females due to size. At least first generation. There is a crossbreeding program in the USA right now doing this.

I prefer grazing due to less labor. Manure is on field; not in pen/shed. Etc. That decision should be made by the one with the goats.

All the discussions on Nabuur need imput from the villagers rather than "top down".

Thanks Ken,

I noticed you replied to a couple of the questions I posted in the other forum here.

It sounds like maybe we should be buying a male pygmy and a regular female? That way we could maybe keep the male as the one to mate with all females?. What do you feel about that Ken?. That way when we buy more goats with the harvest money it could be to buy the cheaper ones. The things is that so far, since the pigmy ones are not available in the area, they seem to be 3 times as expensive but we could have more and improve the breed with the one male.

And yes, in regards to pasture, the community should decide. I prefer a cut and carry approach that although a bit more intensive, could provide instant benefits in terms of milk production if well designed.

Take care,

Raul

Hi guys,

don't you think that this discussion is becoming too dispersed, we are using now several spaces to discuss technical stuff about goats...?
Do you maybe think I should create a new task for discussion about how to set up demo farm, about feeding, housing and such things...?

In resources section I added a manual for goat keeping in the tropics, can you guys have a look and say what you think about it? It seems they have some good advices.

Take care,
Sonja

Raul,

yes, a male pygmy would be the lowest cost way to get into the pygmy goat raising. Especially since they are not in the area. The village could become THE breeder for them with increased profits.

Grazing is simpler. There should not be any differenc in milk yield. Less labor.