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Hi there,

Please take a look at the suggested risks and rank them as low (L), medium (M), high (H) according to your understanding of the situation in Walungu (Low ranking- will not affect the project too much if it happens, high ranking- will affect the project very much).The second ranking will be on the possibility for this event to happen (1-most likely will not happen, 3- most likely will happen, 2 - in the middle). This will help me to weed out the risks that are not too relevant and create a comprehensive risk analysis. I hope the example makes sense ...Thanks!

 

Risks in Walungu

Neighbor	Guillaume	Ken	Nico	Raul	Sonja	Tanja	Enter your name here
high diseases proneness of the goats	H/1			H/1	H/1	H/2
lack of constant supply of forage	M/1			H/1	H/2	H/2
theft,looting	H/1			H/2	H/3	H/2
volatility of price of milk/meat if for sale	L/2			H/1	L/1	L/3
lack of availability of storage facilities for milk/meat	L/1			L/1	H/2	H/3
low level of hygiene of the farmers	H/1			H/1	H/2	H/2
lack of treatment of waste water	L/2			L/3	H/2	H/3
lack of stability of the political situation	H/1			H/1	H/3	H/3
lack of availability of safe/ clean water	L/1			H/1	H/1	H/2
lack of farm mechanization	L/2			L/3	L/2	L/3
land erosion	M/2			M/2	L/2	L/3
inconsistent management/involvement of the local community	H/1			H/1	H/1	H/2
low level of agricultural education	H/2			H/2	M/2	H/2
lack of knowledge transfer	M/2			M/1	H/2	H/2
unsuccessful artificial insemination	L/2			L/3	L/2	H/3
enter risk here

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SWOT 

Strength
* commitment of the community

* need based eagerness to learn

* training

* support of the local NGO (GAILD) – training, organization, partnerships, available human resources educated in agriculture and nutrition

* support of Nabuur

* availability of a vet

* availability of food and water for goats

Opportunities

(Tanja)trainig in raising milk producing goats, milk storage, milk preparation ( assumption- milk will need to be boiled in order to be stored - no commercial pasteurization facilities), build underground storing facility/utilize caves

* gaining skills in improved agricultural techniques

* raising goats is relatively easy due to the fact that they require low capital investment, the reproductive yield is high, managing is not labour intensive but requires diligence

* development towards a cow farming project

* gaining economic independency

* improved health of the community through improved nutrition for families

* gaining organisational skills

* achieving community coherence and greater stability

* to offer the community business opportunity and skills in goat husbandry

* to improve on the goat’s meat and milk production by learning news skills

* to add to social harmony and confidence by succeeding in all this

* to improve local breed by crossbreeding with dairy goats, to produce more products, like dairy products and meat- The most common use of goat dung and urine locally is for smearing the floor,smearing baskets, to and bind surfaces. This may sound strange in some countries but it is a common and sensible practice in most countries

* to use goat manure, especially the floor waste from sheds, where it is mixed
with straw and urine

 Possible weaknesses

* lack of a controlled temperature storage for milk (need to find a way for milk storage)

* possibility of volatile forage supply (need for improved farming techniques for growing their own food)

* possible inconsistent management/involvement of the local community (need for training and sensitization of the community by GAILD)

* volatility of price of milk/meat if for sale

* lack of funds (need to find ways for cheap solutions + applying for funds from outside)

* wood not easily available –for cooking, building…(possible solution with solar cookers)

* possible bad hygiene practices (need for training and sensitization)

* lack of local milk producing goat breeds (establishing contacts with sellers, ordering goats well in advance)

* demographics??? (stucture?) 

Possible threats

* the goats can escape if the fences aren’t good enough (keeping goats attached on a rope + kids watching on them)

* political instability (the only way to decrease risks is to make a contingency plan)

* theft (sheds build near houses + lockers + not leaving goats alone for a long time)

* water safety (project to be developed to decrease this threat)

* threats to the goats by plants and possible diseases

* miscommunication (think of better ways of communication??)

* weather (seek for improved techniques so that they depend less on weather)

* goats eat everything (threat for goats to get sick?)

* land erosion???

* possible problems with transport of the products, because of the lack of good roads

Stage two 

Similar to stage one with the addition of reluctance of the farmers to work together in a group, lack of trust between members and underdeveloped infrastructure which will impede the timely delivery of fresh milk to local markets.

 

 

  - Female goats that get baby goats for the first time, mostly get only one goat. If they get more there’s a big chance that one of them will die. To let the baby goat survive, there is a need for special care and food.
- Basic care- hoof trimming- every 6 to 8 weeks (they need someone who can do it)
- Deworming and lice control -4-6 times a year (they need someone who can do it, and it’s not sure if there’s anyone in the vicinity of Walungu)- A change in the food of the goat can make it very sick, so it’s important it gets the same kind of food every day
- Milk goats mostly have a problem living with temperatures higher than 24 degrees.
- Goats can’t stand changing weather, so they need a good, dry accommodation.
- It is very important that the goats get milked two times a day, in the morning and in the evening. That has to be every day at the same time, and it has to be very hygienically  Possible goat diseases:
 Caprine Arthritis Encephalitis - a lentiviral§ infection of goats which may lead to chronic disease of the joints and on rare occasions encephalitis. It is a disease that affects the longs.
 Caseous§ lymphadenitis – It’s a bacterial infection. Possible infections to the lymph glands.
 Chlamydophila abortion - is a species in Chlamydiae that causes§ abortion and fetal death in mammals, including humans. Infected females shed bacteria near the time of ovulation, so C. abortion is transmitted orally and sexually among mammals. It is possible to vaccinate animals with a living vaccine. This leads to lower risk on contamination with Chlamydophila. This vaccination must take place at least four weeks for the insemination and it is necessary to vaccinate a few more times. If the goats are already infected it is very hard to get rid of the disease, it is better to let the infected goats die.
 Scrapie - is a fatal, degenerative disease that affects the nervous§ systems of sheep and goats.
The name scrapie is derived from one of the symptoms of:
- the condition
- wherein affected animals will compulsively scrape off their fleece against rocks, trees or fences. The disease apparently causes an itching sensation in the animals.
Other symptoms include:
- excessive lip-smacking
- strange gaits
- and convulsive collapse.
Scrapie is infectious and transmissible among similar animals, and so one of the most common ways to contain scrapie (since it is incurable) is to quarantine and destroy those affected. However, scrapie tends to persist in flocks and can also arise apparently spontaneously in flocks that have not previously had cases of the disease. Sheeppox and goatpox - are diseases caused by separate viruses of the genus§ Capripoxvirus.
Symptoms:
- Fever
- Depression
- Anorexia
- Diarrhea
- Arched back
- Lymphadenopathy (enlargement of lymph nodes up to 8 times normal size)
- Cutaneous eruptions (erythmatous areas).
Vaccinations are available in the form a live attenuated or inactivated vaccines. In enzootic regions, annual vaccination with the live attenuated vaccine is recommended. These five diseases are most threatening to goats. The five diseases who are following below are also a threat to sheep. Bluetongue disease or catarrhal fever§
- Major signs are high fever
- excessive salivation
- swelling of the face and tongue
- cyanosis of the tongue.
- Swelling of the lips and tongue gives the tongue its typical blue appearance, though this sign is confined to a minority of the animals.
Vaccination is possible.
 Fasciolosis – Ruminants contaminate§ themselves mainly on wet pasture. The presence of freshwater snails is necessary for closing the cycle. Risk on goats is low.
 Anthrax - is an acute disease§ in humans and animals caused by the bacterium Bacillus anthracis, which is highly lethal in some forms.
- Symptoms which appear strongly differing and varying pneumonia and an increased and infected spleen.
 Lumpy skin disease§ - is a disease caused by a virus of the family Poxviridae.
Symptoms include:
- fever
- discharge from the eyes and nose
- nodular
- necrotic skin lesions
- edema of the limbs
- swollen lymph nodes.
The disease can be easily confused in its early stages with pseudo-lumpyskin disease. Two vaccines are available, one a live attenuated version of the Neethling virus, the other a live attenuated version of the sheeppox virus.
§ Johne's disease - (pronounced "yo-knees") is a contagious, chronic and sometimes fatal infection that affects primarily the small intestine of ruminants. In cattle,
the main symptoms of paratuberculosis are:
- diarrhoea and wasting.
Most cases are seen in 2 to 6 year old animals.
The initial symptoms can be subtle and may be limited:
- to weight loss
- decreased milk production
- or roughening of the hair coat.If it is not possible to vaccinate or to cure infected goats, it is better to let the goats who are infected die.
*Encephalitis – hersenontsteking, nekkramp